Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Vilniaus Vytis vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Vilniaus Vytis
Vilniaus Vytis
FT
1 – 4
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
9/26/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Promotion Round - 3Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis49%
×Draw22%
Nevėžis29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilniaus Vytis
1.94
Nevėžis
1.43

Vilniaus Vytis creates 36% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 83 away

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis
2.60
Nevėžis
1.57

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis
1.28
Nevėžis
1.28

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw
71%
Vilniaus Vytis or Nevėžis
78%
Draw or Nevėžis
51%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+
28%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals
86%
Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals
58%
Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals
30%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
76%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
42%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)
63%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 2.60 + Nevėžis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.94

Nevėžis attack 1.57 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more
49%
level
22%
Nevėžis scores more
29%

Vilniaus Vytis at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Vilniaus Vytis 1–4 Nevėžis

Nevėžis beat Vilniaus Vytis 4-1 in 1 Lyga on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas in Vilnius.