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Nevėžis vs Vilniaus Vytis — 1 Lyga 2026

Nevėžis
Nevėžis
FT
4 – 2
Vilniaus Vytis
Vilniaus Vytis
5/30/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 10Kėdainių miesto stadionas (Kėdainiai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Nevėžis43%
×Draw23%
Vilniaus Vytis34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nevėžis
1.72
Vilniaus Vytis
1.52

Nevėžis creates 13% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 23 away

creates per match

Nevėžis
1.82
Vilniaus Vytis
1.91

allows per match

Nevėžis
1.12
Vilniaus Vytis
1.61

finishing

Nevėžis+0.00on par
Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nevėžis ↓

Vilniaus Vytis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nevėžis or draw
66%
Nevėžis or Vilniaus Vytis
77%
Draw or Vilniaus Vytis
57%

Winning margin

Nevėžis wins by 2+
22%
Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nevėžis 1+ goals
82%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
51%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
25%
Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals
78%
Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals
45%
Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Nevėžis (draw refunded)
55%
Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nevėžis at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.12 · 84 matches

Vilniaus Vytis away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nevėžis attack 1.82 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Vilniaus Vytis attack 1.91 + Nevėžis defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nevėžis scores more
43%
level
23%
Vilniaus Vytis scores more
34%

Nevėžis at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nevėžis vs Vilniaus Vytis

Nevėžis beat Vilniaus Vytis 4-2 in 1 Lyga on May 30, 2019.

The match was played at Kėdainių miesto stadionas (Kėdainiai).