Vilniaus Vytis 5–0 Minija: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Vilniaus Vytis

FT

5 – 0

Minija

7/18/2020

1 Lyga · Round 7Vilniaus LFF stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis57%

×Draw20%

Minija22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vilniaus VytisExpected goals in this matchMinija

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.31

Vilniaus Vytis

2.19

Minija

1.31

Vilniaus Vytis creates 67% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 102 away

2.60

creates per match

1.33

1.28

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis

2.60

Minija

1.33

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis

1.28

Minija

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par

Minija+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

Minija →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw

78%

Vilniaus Vytis or Minija

80%

Draw or Minija

43%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+

35%

Minija wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals

89%

Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals

64%

Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals

37%

Minija 1+ goals

73%

Minija 2+ goals

38%

Minija 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)

72%

Minija (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Minija away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.78 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 2.60 + Minija defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.19

Minija attack 1.33 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more

57%

level

20%

Minija scores more

22%

Vilniaus Vytis at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff