Minija 1–1 Vilniaus Vytis: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Minija

FT

1 – 1

Vilniaus Vytis

7/27/2019

1 Lyga · Round 17Kretingos miesto stadionas (Kretinga)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Minija37%

×Draw24%

Vilniaus Vytis39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MinijaExpected goals in this matchVilniaus Vytis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.60

Minija

1.54

Vilniaus Vytis

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 23 away

1.46

creates per match

1.91

1.30

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Minija

1.46

Vilniaus Vytis

1.91

allows per match

Minija

1.30

Vilniaus Vytis

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Minija+0.00on par

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Minija ↓

Vilniaus Vytis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Minija or draw

61%

Minija or Vilniaus Vytis

76%

Draw or Vilniaus Vytis

63%

Winning margin

Minija wins by 2+

18%

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Minija 1+ goals

79%

Minija 2+ goals

45%

Minija 3+ goals

20%

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals

80%

Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals

47%

Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Minija (draw refunded)

48%

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Minija at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 104 matches

Vilniaus Vytis away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Minija attack 1.46 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vilniaus Vytis attack 1.91 + Minija defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Minija scores more

37%

level

24%

Vilniaus Vytis scores more

39%

Vilniaus Vytis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff