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Vilniaus Vytis vs Jonava — 1 Lyga 2026

Vilniaus Vytis
Vilniaus Vytis
FT
3 – 2
Jonava
Jonava
10/5/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 27Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis54%
×Draw22%
Jonava24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilniaus Vytis
2.02
Jonava
1.30

Vilniaus Vytis creates 55% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 74 away

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis
2.60
Jonava
1.32

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis
1.28
Jonava
1.43

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw
76%
Vilniaus Vytis or Jonava
78%
Draw or Jonava
46%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+
32%
Jonava wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals
87%
Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals
60%
Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals
33%
Jonava 1+ goals
73%
Jonava 2+ goals
37%
Jonava 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)
69%
Jonava (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 2.60 + Jonava defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.02

Jonava attack 1.32 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more
54%
level
22%
Jonava scores more
24%

Vilniaus Vytis at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Vilniaus Vytis 3–2 Jonava

Vilniaus Vytis beat Jonava 3-2 in 1 Lyga on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius).