Jonava 1–0 Vilniaus Vytis: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Jonava

FT

1 – 0

Vilniaus Vytis

6/16/2019

1 Lyga · Round 12Jonavos centrinis stadionas (Jonava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Jonava40%

×Draw23%

Vilniaus Vytis37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JonavaExpected goals in this matchVilniaus Vytis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.66

Jonava

1.72

Vilniaus Vytis

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 23 away

1.82

creates per match

1.91

1.41

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Jonava

1.82

Vilniaus Vytis

1.91

allows per match

Jonava

1.41

Vilniaus Vytis

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jonava+0.00on par

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jonava ↓

Vilniaus Vytis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Jonava or draw

63%

Jonava or Vilniaus Vytis

77%

Draw or Vilniaus Vytis

60%

Winning margin

Jonava wins by 2+

20%

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Jonava 1+ goals

82%

Jonava 2+ goals

51%

Jonava 3+ goals

25%

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals

81%

Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals

49%

Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Jonava (draw refunded)

52%

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jonava at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

Vilniaus Vytis away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jonava attack 1.82 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Vilniaus Vytis attack 1.91 + Jonava defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Jonava scores more

40%

level

23%

Vilniaus Vytis scores more

37%

Jonava at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff