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Vilniaus Vytis vs Hegelmann Litauen — 1 Lyga 2026

Vilniaus Vytis
Vilniaus Vytis
FT
1 – 1
Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
5/4/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 6Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis50%
×Draw22%
Hegelmann Litauen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilniaus Vytis
1.91
Hegelmann Litauen
1.35

Vilniaus Vytis creates 41% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis
2.60
Hegelmann Litauen
1.43

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis
1.28
Hegelmann Litauen
1.22

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par
Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

Hegelmann Litauen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw
73%
Vilniaus Vytis or Hegelmann Litauen
78%
Draw or Hegelmann Litauen
50%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+
29%
Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals
85%
Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals
57%
Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals
30%
Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals
74%
Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals
39%
Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)
65%
Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Hegelmann Litauen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 2.60 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.91

Hegelmann Litauen attack 1.43 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more
50%
level
22%
Hegelmann Litauen scores more
27%

Vilniaus Vytis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Vilniaus Vytis 1–1 Hegelmann Litauen

Vilniaus Vytis and Hegelmann Litauen drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on May 4, 2019.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius).