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Hegelmann Litauen vs Vilniaus Vytis — 1 Lyga 2026

Hegelmann Litauen
Hegelmann Litauen
FT
0 – 0
Vilniaus Vytis
Vilniaus Vytis
7/25/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 8Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hegelmann Litauen51%
×Draw21%
Vilniaus Vytis28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hegelmann Litauen
2.06
Vilniaus Vytis
1.48

Hegelmann Litauen creates 39% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Hegelmann Litauen
2.52
Vilniaus Vytis
1.91

allows per match

Hegelmann Litauen
1.04
Vilniaus Vytis
1.61

finishing

Hegelmann Litauen+0.00on par
Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hegelmann Litauen ↓

Vilniaus Vytis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hegelmann Litauen or draw
72%
Hegelmann Litauen or Vilniaus Vytis
79%
Draw or Vilniaus Vytis
49%

Winning margin

Hegelmann Litauen wins by 2+
30%
Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Hegelmann Litauen 1+ goals
87%
Hegelmann Litauen 2+ goals
61%
Hegelmann Litauen 3+ goals
34%
Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals
77%
Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals
43%
Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hegelmann Litauen (draw refunded)
65%
Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hegelmann Litauen at home — creates 2.52, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

Vilniaus Vytis away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hegelmann Litauen attack 2.52 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.06

Vilniaus Vytis attack 1.91 + Hegelmann Litauen defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hegelmann Litauen scores more
51%
level
21%
Vilniaus Vytis scores more
28%

Hegelmann Litauen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hegelmann Litauen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Hegelmann Litauen 0–0 Vilniaus Vytis

Hegelmann Litauen and Vilniaus Vytis drew 0-0 in 1 Lyga on July 25, 2020.

The match was played at Nacionalinės futbolo akademijos stadionas in Kaunas.