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Vilniaus Vytis vs BFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Vilniaus Vytis
Vilniaus Vytis
FT
3 – 1
BFA
BFA
9/14/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 24Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Vilniaus Vytis60%
×Draw19%
BFA21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vilniaus Vytis
2.33
BFA
1.31

Vilniaus Vytis creates 78% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 104 away

creates per match

Vilniaus Vytis
2.60
BFA
1.34

allows per match

Vilniaus Vytis
1.28
BFA
2.05

finishing

Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par
BFA+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vilniaus Vytis ↓

BFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vilniaus Vytis or draw
79%
Vilniaus Vytis or BFA
81%
Draw or BFA
40%

Winning margin

Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+
38%
BFA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals
90%
Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals
67%
Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals
41%
BFA 1+ goals
73%
BFA 2+ goals
38%
BFA 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)
74%
BFA (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vilniaus Vytis at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

BFA away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.05 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vilniaus Vytis attack 2.60 + BFA defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.33

BFA attack 1.34 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Vilniaus Vytis scores more
60%
level
19%
BFA scores more
21%

Vilniaus Vytis at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Vilniaus Vytis 3–1 BFA

Vilniaus Vytis beat BFA 3-1 in 1 Lyga on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Vilniaus LFF stadionas (Vilnius).