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BFA vs Vilniaus Vytis — 1 Lyga 2026

BFA
BFA
FT
0 – 0
Vilniaus Vytis
Vilniaus Vytis
5/19/20191 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 9Fabijoniškių mokyklos stadionas (Vilnius)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

BFA37%
×Draw23%
Vilniaus Vytis40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BFA
1.64
Vilniaus Vytis
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 23 away

creates per match

BFA
1.67
Vilniaus Vytis
1.91

allows per match

BFA
1.50
Vilniaus Vytis
1.61

finishing

BFA+0.00on par
Vilniaus Vytis+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BFA ↓

Vilniaus Vytis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

BFA or draw
60%
BFA or Vilniaus Vytis
77%
Draw or Vilniaus Vytis
63%

Winning margin

BFA wins by 2+
18%
Vilniaus Vytis wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

BFA 1+ goals
81%
BFA 2+ goals
49%
BFA 3+ goals
23%
Vilniaus Vytis 1+ goals
82%
Vilniaus Vytis 2+ goals
51%
Vilniaus Vytis 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

BFA (draw refunded)
48%
Vilniaus Vytis (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BFA at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.50 · 103 matches

Vilniaus Vytis away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BFA attack 1.67 + Vilniaus Vytis defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.64

Vilniaus Vytis attack 1.91 + BFA defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

BFA scores more
37%
level
23%
Vilniaus Vytis scores more
40%

Vilniaus Vytis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vilniaus Vytis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BFA vs Vilniaus Vytis

BFA and Vilniaus Vytis drew 0-0 in 1 Lyga on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Fabijoniškių mokyklos stadionas (Vilnius).