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Villingen II vs VfR Mannheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Villingen II
Villingen II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
VfR Mannheim
VfR Mannheim
3/2/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 21Kunstrasenplatz FC 08 Villingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villingen II21%
×Draw19%
VfR Mannheim60%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villingen II
1.39
VfR Mannheim
2.46

VfR Mannheim creates 77% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Villingen II
1.18
VfR Mannheim
1.92

allows per match

Villingen II
3.00
VfR Mannheim
1.59

finishing

Villingen II+0.00on par
VfR Mannheim+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villingen II ↓

VfR Mannheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Villingen II or draw
40%
Villingen II or VfR Mannheim
81%
Draw or VfR Mannheim
79%

Winning margin

Villingen II wins by 2+
9%
VfR Mannheim wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Villingen II 1+ goals
75%
Villingen II 2+ goals
40%
Villingen II 3+ goals
16%
VfR Mannheim 1+ goals
91%
VfR Mannheim 2+ goals
70%
VfR Mannheim 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Villingen II (draw refunded)
26%
VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villingen II at home — creates 1.18, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

VfR Mannheim away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villingen II attack 1.18 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

VfR Mannheim attack 1.92 + Villingen II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Villingen II scores more
21%
level
19%
VfR Mannheim scores more
60%

VfR Mannheim at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "VfR Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Villingen II 0–1 VfR Mannheim

VfR Mannheim beat Villingen II 1-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz FC 08 Villingen in Villingen-Schwenningen.