VfR Mannheim 1–0 Villingen II: Result & Stats

VfR Mannheim

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villingen II

8/24/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 4Rhein-Neckar-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

VfR Mannheim74%

×Draw16%

Villingen II10%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfR MannheimExpected goals in this matchVillingen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

0.81

VfR Mannheim

2.54

Villingen II

0.81

VfR Mannheim creates 214% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.96

creates per match

0.59

1.04

allows per match

3.12

creates per match

VfR Mannheim

1.96

Villingen II

0.59

allows per match

VfR Mannheim

1.04

Villingen II

3.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfR Mannheim+0.00on par

Villingen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Mannheim ↓

Villingen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

VfR Mannheim or draw

90%

VfR Mannheim or Villingen II

84%

Draw or Villingen II

26%

Winning margin

VfR Mannheim wins by 2+

52%

Villingen II wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

VfR Mannheim 1+ goals

92%

VfR Mannheim 2+ goals

72%

VfR Mannheim 3+ goals

46%

Villingen II 1+ goals

56%

Villingen II 2+ goals

19%

Villingen II 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

VfR Mannheim (draw refunded)

88%

Villingen II (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Mannheim at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Villingen II away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Mannheim attack 1.96 + Villingen II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.54

Villingen II attack 0.59 + VfR Mannheim defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

VfR Mannheim scores more

74%

level

16%

Villingen II scores more

10%

VfR Mannheim at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "VfR Mannheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff