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Villingen II vs VfR Aalen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Villingen II
Villingen II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
VfR Aalen
VfR Aalen
9/15/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 8MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villingen II14%
×Draw17%
VfR Aalen68%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villingen II
1.07
VfR Aalen
2.51

VfR Aalen creates 135% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Villingen II
1.18
VfR Aalen
2.03

allows per match

Villingen II
3.00
VfR Aalen
0.97

finishing

Villingen II+0.00on par
VfR Aalen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villingen II ↓

VfR Aalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Villingen II or draw
32%
Villingen II or VfR Aalen
83%
Draw or VfR Aalen
86%

Winning margin

Villingen II wins by 2+
5%
VfR Aalen wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Villingen II 1+ goals
66%
Villingen II 2+ goals
29%
Villingen II 3+ goals
9%
VfR Aalen 1+ goals
92%
VfR Aalen 2+ goals
71%
VfR Aalen 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Villingen II (draw refunded)
17%
VfR Aalen (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villingen II at home — creates 1.18, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

VfR Aalen away — creates 2.03, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villingen II attack 1.18 + VfR Aalen defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.07

VfR Aalen attack 2.03 + Villingen II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Villingen II scores more
14%
level
17%
VfR Aalen scores more
68%

VfR Aalen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "VfR Aalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villingen II vs VfR Aalen

VfR Aalen beat Villingen II 3-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at MS Technologie Arena in Villingen-Schwenningen.