VfR Aalen 3–0 Villingen II: Result & Stats

VfR Aalen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Villingen II

3/29/2025

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 25CENTUS ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

VfR Aalen81%

×Draw13%

Villingen II6%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VfR AalenExpected goals in this matchVillingen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

0.64

VfR Aalen

2.72

Villingen II

0.64

VfR Aalen creates 325% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

2.32

creates per match

0.59

0.68

allows per match

3.12

creates per match

VfR Aalen

2.32

Villingen II

0.59

allows per match

VfR Aalen

0.68

Villingen II

3.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VfR Aalen+0.00on par

Villingen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VfR Aalen ↓

Villingen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

VfR Aalen or draw

94%

VfR Aalen or Villingen II

87%

Draw or Villingen II

19%

Winning margin

VfR Aalen wins by 2+

60%

Villingen II wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

VfR Aalen 1+ goals

93%

VfR Aalen 2+ goals

75%

VfR Aalen 3+ goals

50%

Villingen II 1+ goals

47%

Villingen II 2+ goals

14%

Villingen II 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

VfR Aalen (draw refunded)

93%

Villingen II (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VfR Aalen at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.68 · 34 matches

Villingen II away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VfR Aalen attack 2.32 + Villingen II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.72

Villingen II attack 0.59 + VfR Aalen defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

VfR Aalen scores more

81%

level

13%

Villingen II scores more

6%

VfR Aalen at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "VfR Aalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff