Villingen II 2–5 Normannia Gmünd: Result & Stats

Villingen II

FT

2 – 5

HT: 2 – 4

Normannia Gmünd

5/31/2025

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 34MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villingen II26%

×Draw21%

Normannia Gmünd54%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villingen IIExpected goals in this matchNormannia Gmünd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.17

Villingen II

1.46

Normannia Gmünd

2.17

Normannia Gmünd creates 49% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

1.18

creates per match

1.33

3.00

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Villingen II

1.18

Normannia Gmünd

1.33

allows per match

Villingen II

3.00

Normannia Gmünd

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villingen II+0.00on par

Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villingen II ↓

Normannia Gmünd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Villingen II or draw

46%

Villingen II or Normannia Gmünd

79%

Draw or Normannia Gmünd

74%

Winning margin

Villingen II wins by 2+

11%

Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Villingen II 1+ goals

77%

Villingen II 2+ goals

43%

Villingen II 3+ goals

18%

Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals

89%

Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals

64%

Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Villingen II (draw refunded)

32%

Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villingen II at home — creates 1.18, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Normannia Gmünd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villingen II attack 1.18 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.33 + Villingen II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Villingen II scores more

26%

level

21%

Normannia Gmünd scores more

54%

Normannia Gmünd at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Normannia Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff