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Normannia Gmünd vs Villingen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Normannia Gmünd
Normannia Gmünd
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Villingen II
Villingen II
11/16/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 17Jahnstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Normannia Gmünd69%
×Draw17%
Villingen II13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Normannia Gmünd
2.47
Villingen II
0.99

Normannia Gmünd creates 149% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Normannia Gmünd
1.82
Villingen II
0.59

allows per match

Normannia Gmünd
1.39
Villingen II
3.12

finishing

Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par
Villingen II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Normannia Gmünd ↓

Villingen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Normannia Gmünd or draw
87%
Normannia Gmünd or Villingen II
83%
Draw or Villingen II
31%

Winning margin

Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+
47%
Villingen II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals
91%
Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals
70%
Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals
44%
Villingen II 1+ goals
63%
Villingen II 2+ goals
26%
Villingen II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)
84%
Villingen II (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Normannia Gmünd at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

Villingen II away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.82 + Villingen II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.47

Villingen II attack 0.59 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Normannia Gmünd scores more
69%
level
17%
Villingen II scores more
13%

Normannia Gmünd at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Normannia Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Normannia Gmünd vs Villingen II

Normannia Gmünd beat Villingen II 5-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Jahnstadion in Schwäbisch Gmünd.