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Villingen II vs Leinfelden-Echterdingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Villingen II
Villingen II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leinfelden-Echterdingen
Leinfelden-Echterdingen
5/4/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 30Kunstrasenplatz FC 08 Villingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villingen II42%
×Draw21%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villingen II
2.03
Leinfelden-Echterdingen
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Villingen II
1.18
Leinfelden-Echterdingen
0.82

allows per match

Villingen II
3.00
Leinfelden-Echterdingen
2.88

finishing

Villingen II+0.00on par
Leinfelden-Echterdingen+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villingen II ↓

Leinfelden-Echterdingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Villingen II or draw
63%
Villingen II or Leinfelden-Echterdingen
79%
Draw or Leinfelden-Echterdingen
58%

Winning margin

Villingen II wins by 2+
23%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Villingen II 1+ goals
87%
Villingen II 2+ goals
60%
Villingen II 3+ goals
33%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen 1+ goals
85%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen 2+ goals
57%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Villingen II (draw refunded)
53%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villingen II at home — creates 1.18, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Leinfelden-Echterdingen away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villingen II attack 1.18 + Leinfelden-Echterdingen defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.03

Leinfelden-Echterdingen attack 0.82 + Villingen II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villingen II scores more
42%
level
21%
Leinfelden-Echterdingen scores more
37%

Villingen II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Villingen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Villingen II 2–1 Leinfelden-Echterdingen

Villingen II beat Leinfelden-Echterdingen 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz FC 08 Villingen in Villingen-Schwenningen.