Leinfelden-Echterdingen 0–2 Villingen II

Leinfelden-Echterdingen

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Villingen II

10/20/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 13Rasenplatz Sportpark Goldäcker

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Leinfelden-Echterdingen59%

×Draw20%

Villingen II21%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Leinfelden-EchterdingenExpected goals in this matchVillingen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.29

Leinfelden-Echterdingen

2.27

Villingen II

1.29

Leinfelden-Echterdingen creates 76% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

0.59

2.00

allows per match

3.12

creates per match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen

1.41

Villingen II

0.59

allows per match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen

2.00

Villingen II

3.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Leinfelden-Echterdingen+0.00on par

Villingen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leinfelden-Echterdingen ↓

Villingen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Leinfelden-Echterdingen or draw

79%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen or Villingen II

80%

Draw or Villingen II

41%

Winning margin

Leinfelden-Echterdingen wins by 2+

37%

Villingen II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 1+ goals

90%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 2+ goals

66%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen 3+ goals

39%

Villingen II 1+ goals

72%

Villingen II 2+ goals

37%

Villingen II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Leinfelden-Echterdingen (draw refunded)

74%

Villingen II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leinfelden-Echterdingen at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

Villingen II away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leinfelden-Echterdingen attack 1.41 + Villingen II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.27

Villingen II attack 0.59 + Leinfelden-Echterdingen defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Leinfelden-Echterdingen scores more

59%

level

20%

Villingen II scores more

21%

Leinfelden-Echterdingen at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Leinfelden-Echterdingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff