Villingen II 2–1 Essingen: Result & Stats

Villingen II

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Essingen

8/4/2024

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 1MS Technologie Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Villingen II24%

×Draw21%

Essingen56%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villingen IIExpected goals in this matchEssingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.17

Villingen II

1.36

Essingen

2.17

Essingen creates 60% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

1.18

creates per match

1.35

3.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Villingen II

1.18

Essingen

1.35

allows per match

Villingen II

3.00

Essingen

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villingen II+0.00on par

Essingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villingen II ↓

Essingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Villingen II or draw

44%

Villingen II or Essingen

79%

Draw or Essingen

76%

Winning margin

Villingen II wins by 2+

10%

Essingen wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Villingen II 1+ goals

74%

Villingen II 2+ goals

39%

Villingen II 3+ goals

16%

Essingen 1+ goals

89%

Essingen 2+ goals

64%

Essingen 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Villingen II (draw refunded)

30%

Essingen (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villingen II at home — creates 1.18, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

Essingen away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villingen II attack 1.18 + Essingen defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Essingen attack 1.35 + Villingen II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Villingen II scores more

24%

level

21%

Essingen scores more

56%

Essingen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Essingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff