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Essingen vs Villingen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Essingen
Essingen
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Villingen II
Villingen II
2/22/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 18Carento-Arena Essingen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Essingen65%
×Draw19%
Villingen II16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Essingen
2.31
Villingen II
1.04

Essingen creates 122% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Essingen
1.49
Villingen II
0.59

allows per match

Essingen
1.49
Villingen II
3.12

finishing

Essingen+0.00on par
Villingen II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Essingen ↓

Villingen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Essingen or draw
84%
Essingen or Villingen II
81%
Draw or Villingen II
35%

Winning margin

Essingen wins by 2+
43%
Villingen II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Essingen 1+ goals
90%
Essingen 2+ goals
67%
Essingen 3+ goals
40%
Villingen II 1+ goals
65%
Villingen II 2+ goals
28%
Villingen II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Essingen (draw refunded)
81%
Villingen II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Essingen at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.49 · 51 matches

Villingen II away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Essingen attack 1.49 + Villingen II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.31

Villingen II attack 0.59 + Essingen defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Essingen scores more
65%
level
19%
Villingen II scores more
16%

Essingen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Essingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Essingen 6–0 Villingen II

Essingen beat Villingen II 6-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on February 22, 2025.

The match was played at Carento-Arena Essingen in Essingen.