Villegas 0–1 River Ebro: Result & Stats

Villegas

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

River Ebro

4/1/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio La Ribera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Villegas29%

×Draw23%

River Ebro48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillegasExpected goals in this matchRiver Ebro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.81

Villegas

1.35

River Ebro

1.81

River Ebro creates 34% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 93 away

0.78

creates per match

1.09

2.54

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Villegas

0.78

River Ebro

1.09

allows per match

Villegas

2.54

River Ebro

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villegas+0.00on par

River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villegas ↓

River Ebro →

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Villegas or draw

52%

Villegas or River Ebro

77%

Draw or River Ebro

71%

Winning margin

Villegas wins by 2+

12%

River Ebro wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Villegas 1+ goals

74%

Villegas 2+ goals

39%

Villegas 3+ goals

15%

River Ebro 1+ goals

84%

River Ebro 2+ goals

54%

River Ebro 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Villegas (draw refunded)

37%

River Ebro (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villegas at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.54 · 46 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villegas attack 0.78 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.35

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Villegas defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Villegas scores more

29%

level

23%

River Ebro scores more

48%

River Ebro at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "River Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff