River Ebro vs Villegas: Preview & Prediction

River Ebro

CANC

00:00

Villegas

3/29/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 31Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

River Ebro67%

×Draw19%

Villegas14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River EbroExpected goals in this matchVillegas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.86

River Ebro

2.14

Villegas

0.86

River Ebro creates 149% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 46 away

1.24

creates per match

0.57

1.16

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

River Ebro

1.24

Villegas

0.57

allows per match

River Ebro

1.16

Villegas

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par

Villegas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

Villegas →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw

86%

River Ebro or Villegas

81%

Draw or Villegas

33%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+

42%

Villegas wins by 2+

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals

88%

River Ebro 2+ goals

63%

River Ebro 3+ goals

36%

Villegas 1+ goals

58%

Villegas 2+ goals

21%

Villegas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)

83%

Villegas (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

Villegas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.04 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + Villegas defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.14

Villegas attack 0.57 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

River Ebro scores more

67%

level

19%

Villegas scores more

14%

River Ebro at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "River Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

River Ebro vs Villegas — Match Preview

River Ebro face Villegas on March 29, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

River Ebro host Villegas at Estadio San Miguel.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

River Ebro vs Villegas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

River Ebro vs Villegas — Match Preview