Villegas 0–6 Náxara: Result & Stats

Villegas

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Náxara

2/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 26Estadio La Ribera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Villegas12%

×Draw17%

Náxara71%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VillegasExpected goals in this matchNáxara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

2.52

Villegas

0.93

Náxara

2.52

Náxara creates 171% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 59 away

0.78

creates per match

2.49

2.54

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Villegas

0.78

Náxara

2.49

allows per match

Villegas

2.54

Náxara

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villegas+0.00on par

Náxara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villegas ↓

Náxara →

0–03%

0–18%

0–210%

0–39%

0–45%

1–03%

1–18%

1–210%

1–38%

1–45%

2–01%

2–14%

2–24%

2–34%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Villegas or draw

29%

Villegas or Náxara

83%

Draw or Náxara

88%

Winning margin

Villegas wins by 2+

Náxara wins by 2+

49%

Team goals

Villegas 1+ goals

61%

Villegas 2+ goals

24%

Villegas 3+ goals

Náxara 1+ goals

92%

Náxara 2+ goals

71%

Náxara 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Villegas (draw refunded)

14%

Náxara (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villegas at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.54 · 46 matches

Náxara away — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villegas attack 0.78 + Náxara defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.93

Náxara attack 2.49 + Villegas defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 71%?"

Villegas scores more

12%

level

17%

Náxara scores more

71%

Náxara at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff