Náxara 7–0 Villegas: Result & Stats

Náxara

7 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Villegas

10/6/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 7Estadio La Salera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Náxara82%

×Draw12%

Villegas6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NáxaraExpected goals in this matchVillegas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.80

0.63

Náxara

2.80

Villegas

0.63

Náxara creates 344% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 46 away

2.56

creates per match

0.57

0.69

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

Náxara

2.56

Villegas

0.57

allows per match

Náxara

0.69

Villegas

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Náxara+0.00on par

Villegas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náxara ↓

Villegas →

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–09%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–012%

3–18%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–09%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Náxara or draw

94%

Náxara or Villegas

88%

Draw or Villegas

18%

Winning margin

Náxara wins by 2+

61%

Villegas wins by 2+

Team goals

Náxara 1+ goals

94%

Náxara 2+ goals

76%

Náxara 3+ goals

52%

Villegas 1+ goals

47%

Villegas 2+ goals

13%

Villegas 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Náxara (draw refunded)

93%

Villegas (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Náxara at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Villegas away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.04 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Náxara attack 2.56 + Villegas defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.80

Villegas attack 0.57 + Náxara defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 82%?"

Náxara scores more

82%

level

12%

Villegas scores more

Náxara at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff