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Villaviciosa Odón vs Pozuelo Alarcón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaviciosa Odón
Villaviciosa Odón
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
1/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 22Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Villaviciosa Odón33%
×Draw29%
Pozuelo Alarcón38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaviciosa Odón
1.07
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 97 away

creates per match

Villaviciosa Odón
0.85
Pozuelo Alarcón
0.96

allows per match

Villaviciosa Odón
1.35
Pozuelo Alarcón
1.29

finishing

Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par
Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaviciosa Odón ↓

Pozuelo Alarcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villaviciosa Odón or draw
62%
Villaviciosa Odón or Pozuelo Alarcón
71%
Draw or Pozuelo Alarcón
67%

Winning margin

Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+
13%
Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals
66%
Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals
29%
Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals
9%
Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
69%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
32%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)
47%
Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaviciosa Odón at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Pozuelo Alarcón away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.29 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaviciosa Odón attack 0.85 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 0.96 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Villaviciosa Odón scores more
33%
level
29%
Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
38%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villaviciosa Odón 1–2 Pozuelo Alarcón

Pozuelo Alarcón beat Villaviciosa Odón 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.