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Pozuelo Alarcón vs Villaviciosa Odón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Pozuelo Alarcón
Pozuelo Alarcón
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Villaviciosa Odón
Villaviciosa Odón
9/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Estadio Valle de las Cañas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Pozuelo Alarcón48%
×Draw23%
Villaviciosa Odón29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.81
Villaviciosa Odón
1.36

Pozuelo Alarcón creates 33% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 20 away

creates per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.32
Villaviciosa Odón
1.50

allows per match

Pozuelo Alarcón
1.22
Villaviciosa Odón
2.30

finishing

Pozuelo Alarcón+0.00on par
Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozuelo Alarcón ↓

Villaviciosa Odón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Pozuelo Alarcón or draw
71%
Pozuelo Alarcón or Villaviciosa Odón
77%
Draw or Villaviciosa Odón
52%

Winning margin

Pozuelo Alarcón wins by 2+
26%
Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pozuelo Alarcón 1+ goals
84%
Pozuelo Alarcón 2+ goals
54%
Pozuelo Alarcón 3+ goals
27%
Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals
74%
Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals
39%
Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Pozuelo Alarcón (draw refunded)
62%
Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozuelo Alarcón at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 97 matches

Villaviciosa Odón away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozuelo Alarcón attack 1.32 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.81

Villaviciosa Odón attack 1.50 + Pozuelo Alarcón defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pozuelo Alarcón scores more
48%
level
23%
Villaviciosa Odón scores more
29%

Pozuelo Alarcón at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pozuelo Alarcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pozuelo Alarcón 3 – 1 Villaviciosa Odón

Pozuelo Alarcón beat Villaviciosa Odón 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Valle de las Cañas in Pozuelo de Alarcón.