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Villaviciosa Odón vs Colonia Moscardó — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaviciosa Odón
Villaviciosa Odón
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
1/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 26Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Villaviciosa Odón42%
×Draw28%
Colonia Moscardó30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaviciosa Odón
1.27
Colonia Moscardó
1.02

Villaviciosa Odón creates 25% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 37 away

creates per match

Villaviciosa Odón
0.85
Colonia Moscardó
0.70

allows per match

Villaviciosa Odón
1.35
Colonia Moscardó
1.70

finishing

Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par
Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaviciosa Odón ↓

Colonia Moscardó →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villaviciosa Odón or draw
70%
Villaviciosa Odón or Colonia Moscardó
72%
Draw or Colonia Moscardó
58%

Winning margin

Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+
19%
Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals
72%
Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals
36%
Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals
14%
Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
64%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
27%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)
59%
Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaviciosa Odón at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

Colonia Moscardó away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaviciosa Odón attack 0.85 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.27

Colonia Moscardó attack 0.70 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villaviciosa Odón scores more
42%
level
28%
Colonia Moscardó scores more
30%

Villaviciosa Odón at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Villaviciosa Odón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villaviciosa Odón vs Colonia Moscardó

Colonia Moscardó beat Villaviciosa Odón 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.