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Colonia Moscardó vs Villaviciosa Odón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Colonia Moscardó
Colonia Moscardó
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villaviciosa Odón
Villaviciosa Odón
9/26/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 5Estadio Román Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Colonia Moscardó41%
×Draw23%
Villaviciosa Odón36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colonia Moscardó
1.72
Villaviciosa Odón
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

creates per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.14
Villaviciosa Odón
1.50

allows per match

Colonia Moscardó
1.73
Villaviciosa Odón
2.30

finishing

Colonia Moscardó+0.00on par
Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colonia Moscardó ↓

Villaviciosa Odón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Colonia Moscardó or draw
64%
Colonia Moscardó or Villaviciosa Odón
77%
Draw or Villaviciosa Odón
59%

Winning margin

Colonia Moscardó wins by 2+
21%
Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Colonia Moscardó 1+ goals
82%
Colonia Moscardó 2+ goals
51%
Colonia Moscardó 3+ goals
25%
Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals
80%
Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals
48%
Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Colonia Moscardó (draw refunded)
53%
Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colonia Moscardó at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

Villaviciosa Odón away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colonia Moscardó attack 1.14 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.72

Villaviciosa Odón attack 1.50 + Colonia Moscardó defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colonia Moscardó scores more
41%
level
23%
Villaviciosa Odón scores more
36%

Colonia Moscardó at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colonia Moscardó will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Colonia Moscardó vs Villaviciosa Odón

Colonia Moscardó beat Villaviciosa Odón 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Román Valero in Madrid.