Villaviciosa Odón 0–3 AD Parla: Result & Stats

Villaviciosa Odón

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

AD Parla

3/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 34Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Villaviciosa Odón38%

×Draw28%

AD Parla34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villaviciosa OdónExpected goals in this matchAD Parla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.17

Villaviciosa Odón

1.25

AD Parla

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 98 away

0.85

creates per match

0.99

1.35

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Villaviciosa Odón

0.85

AD Parla

0.99

allows per match

Villaviciosa Odón

1.35

AD Parla

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par

AD Parla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaviciosa Odón ↓

AD Parla →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Villaviciosa Odón or draw

66%

Villaviciosa Odón or AD Parla

72%

Draw or AD Parla

62%

Winning margin

Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+

17%

AD Parla wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals

71%

Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals

36%

Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals

13%

AD Parla 1+ goals

69%

AD Parla 2+ goals

33%

AD Parla 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)

53%

AD Parla (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villaviciosa Odón at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

AD Parla away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.65 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villaviciosa Odón attack 0.85 + AD Parla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.25

AD Parla attack 0.99 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Villaviciosa Odón scores more

38%

level

28%

AD Parla scores more

34%

Villaviciosa Odón at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Villaviciosa Odón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villaviciosa Odón 0–3 AD Parla

AD Parla beat Villaviciosa Odón 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on March 16, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Villaviciosa Odón vs AD Parla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villaviciosa Odón 0–3 AD Parla