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AD Parla vs Villaviciosa Odón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

AD Parla
AD Parla
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Villaviciosa Odón
Villaviciosa Odón
11/17/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Estadio Municipal de Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

AD Parla44%
×Draw24%
Villaviciosa Odón33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Parla
1.69
Villaviciosa Odón
1.43

AD Parla creates 18% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 20 away

creates per match

AD Parla
1.08
Villaviciosa Odón
1.50

allows per match

AD Parla
1.35
Villaviciosa Odón
2.30

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par
Villaviciosa Odón+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

Villaviciosa Odón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw
67%
AD Parla or Villaviciosa Odón
76%
Draw or Villaviciosa Odón
56%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+
23%
Villaviciosa Odón wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals
82%
AD Parla 2+ goals
50%
AD Parla 3+ goals
24%
Villaviciosa Odón 1+ goals
76%
Villaviciosa Odón 2+ goals
42%
Villaviciosa Odón 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)
57%
Villaviciosa Odón (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Villaviciosa Odón away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + Villaviciosa Odón defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.69

Villaviciosa Odón attack 1.50 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AD Parla scores more
44%
level
24%
Villaviciosa Odón scores more
33%

AD Parla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AD Parla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: AD Parla 4–3 Villaviciosa Odón

AD Parla beat Villaviciosa Odón 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 17, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Prados in Parla.