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Villaverde-Boetticher vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Villaverde-Boetticher
Villaverde-Boetticher
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Leganés II
Leganés II
11/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 9Estadio Boetticher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Villaverde-Boetticher29%
×Draw26%
Leganés II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.14
Leganés II
1.50

Leganés II creates 32% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 79 away

creates per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
0.96
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

Villaverde-Boetticher
1.10
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

Villaverde-Boetticher+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villaverde-Boetticher ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Villaverde-Boetticher or draw
55%
Villaverde-Boetticher or Leganés II
74%
Draw or Leganés II
71%

Winning margin

Villaverde-Boetticher wins by 2+
11%
Leganés II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Villaverde-Boetticher 1+ goals
68%
Villaverde-Boetticher 2+ goals
32%
Villaverde-Boetticher 3+ goals
11%
Leganés II 1+ goals
78%
Leganés II 2+ goals
44%
Leganés II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Villaverde-Boetticher (draw refunded)
39%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villaverde-Boetticher at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.10 · 84 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villaverde-Boetticher attack 0.96 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Villaverde-Boetticher defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Villaverde-Boetticher scores more
29%
level
26%
Leganés II scores more
45%

Leganés II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Villaverde-Boetticher 0–3 Leganés II

Leganés II beat Villaverde-Boetticher 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Boetticher in Madrid.