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Leganés II vs Villaverde-Boetticher — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Leganés II
Leganés II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villaverde-Boetticher
Villaverde-Boetticher
2/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Estadio Anexo Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Leganés II51%
×Draw26%
Villaverde-Boetticher22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leganés II
1.48
Villaverde-Boetticher
0.88

Leganés II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 84 away

creates per match

Leganés II
1.41
Villaverde-Boetticher
0.94

allows per match

Leganés II
0.82
Villaverde-Boetticher
1.54

finishing

Leganés II+0.00on par
Villaverde-Boetticher+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leganés II ↓

Villaverde-Boetticher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Leganés II or draw
78%
Leganés II or Villaverde-Boetticher
74%
Draw or Villaverde-Boetticher
49%

Winning margin

Leganés II wins by 2+
26%
Villaverde-Boetticher wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Leganés II 1+ goals
77%
Leganés II 2+ goals
43%
Leganés II 3+ goals
19%
Villaverde-Boetticher 1+ goals
59%
Villaverde-Boetticher 2+ goals
22%
Villaverde-Boetticher 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Leganés II (draw refunded)
70%
Villaverde-Boetticher (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leganés II at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 78 matches

Villaverde-Boetticher away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.54 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leganés II attack 1.41 + Villaverde-Boetticher defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

Villaverde-Boetticher attack 0.94 + Leganés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Leganés II scores more
51%
level
26%
Villaverde-Boetticher scores more
22%

Leganés II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leganés II vs Villaverde-Boetticher

Leganés II beat Villaverde-Boetticher 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Anexo Butarque in Leganés.