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Villarrubia vs San Clemente — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villarrubia
Villarrubia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
San Clemente
San Clemente
10/7/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 5Campo Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Villarrubia57%
×Draw25%
San Clemente18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarrubia
1.63
San Clemente
0.79

Villarrubia creates 106% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 50 away

creates per match

Villarrubia
1.40
San Clemente
0.70

allows per match

Villarrubia
0.88
San Clemente
1.86

finishing

Villarrubia+0.00on par
San Clemente+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarrubia ↓

San Clemente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villarrubia or draw
82%
Villarrubia or San Clemente
75%
Draw or San Clemente
43%

Winning margin

Villarrubia wins by 2+
31%
San Clemente wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Villarrubia 1+ goals
80%
Villarrubia 2+ goals
48%
Villarrubia 3+ goals
22%
San Clemente 1+ goals
55%
San Clemente 2+ goals
19%
San Clemente 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Villarrubia (draw refunded)
76%
San Clemente (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarrubia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.88 · 83 matches

San Clemente away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.86 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarrubia attack 1.40 + San Clemente defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.63

San Clemente attack 0.70 + Villarrubia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Villarrubia scores more
57%
level
25%
San Clemente scores more
18%

Villarrubia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Villarrubia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Villarrubia 0–2 San Clemente

San Clemente beat Villarrubia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal in Villarrubia de los Ojos.