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San Clemente vs Villarrubia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

San Clemente
San Clemente
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Villarrubia
Villarrubia
2/25/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 22Estadio Municipal San Clemente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

San Clemente36%
×Draw29%
Villarrubia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Clemente
1.13
Villarrubia
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 82 away

creates per match

San Clemente
1.10
Villarrubia
0.95

allows per match

San Clemente
1.31
Villarrubia
1.15

finishing

San Clemente+0.00on par
Villarrubia+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Clemente ↓

Villarrubia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Clemente or draw
64%
San Clemente or Villarrubia
71%
Draw or Villarrubia
64%

Winning margin

San Clemente wins by 2+
15%
Villarrubia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

San Clemente 1+ goals
68%
San Clemente 2+ goals
31%
San Clemente 3+ goals
11%
Villarrubia 1+ goals
68%
Villarrubia 2+ goals
31%
Villarrubia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Clemente (draw refunded)
50%
Villarrubia (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Clemente at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Villarrubia away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.15 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Clemente attack 1.10 + Villarrubia defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Villarrubia attack 0.95 + San Clemente defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

San Clemente scores more
36%
level
29%
Villarrubia scores more
36%

San Clemente at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "San Clemente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: San Clemente 1–1 Villarrubia

San Clemente and Villarrubia drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal San Clemente in San Clemente.