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Villarrubia vs Extremadura — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Villarrubia
Villarrubia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Extremadura
Extremadura
2/10/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 11Campo Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Villarrubia37%
×Draw29%
Extremadura34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarrubia
1.16
Extremadura
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Villarrubia
1.15
Extremadura
1.08

allows per match

Villarrubia
1.15
Extremadura
1.17

finishing

Villarrubia+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarrubia ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villarrubia or draw
66%
Villarrubia or Extremadura
71%
Draw or Extremadura
63%

Winning margin

Villarrubia wins by 2+
15%
Extremadura wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Villarrubia 1+ goals
69%
Villarrubia 2+ goals
32%
Villarrubia 3+ goals
11%
Extremadura 1+ goals
67%
Extremadura 2+ goals
30%
Extremadura 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Villarrubia (draw refunded)
52%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarrubia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarrubia attack 1.15 + Extremadura defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Extremadura attack 1.08 + Villarrubia defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Villarrubia scores more
37%
level
29%
Extremadura scores more
34%

Villarrubia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Villarrubia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Villarrubia 1–1 Extremadura

Villarrubia and Extremadura drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 10, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal in Villarrubia de los Ojos.