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Extremadura vs Villarrubia — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Extremadura
Extremadura
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Villarrubia
Villarrubia
10/24/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura53%
×Draw29%
Villarrubia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.31
Villarrubia
0.64

Extremadura creates 105% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.25
Villarrubia
0.69

allows per match

Extremadura
0.58
Villarrubia
1.38

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Villarrubia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Villarrubia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
82%
Extremadura or Villarrubia
71%
Draw or Villarrubia
47%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
25%
Villarrubia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
73%
Extremadura 2+ goals
38%
Extremadura 3+ goals
14%
Villarrubia 1+ goals
47%
Villarrubia 2+ goals
14%
Villarrubia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
74%
Villarrubia (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Villarrubia away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.25 + Villarrubia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Villarrubia attack 0.69 + Extremadura defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Extremadura scores more
53%
level
29%
Villarrubia scores more
18%

Extremadura at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Extremadura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Extremadura 1–1 Villarrubia

Extremadura and Villarrubia drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 24, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.