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Villarrubia vs CF Talavera — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Villarrubia
Villarrubia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
CF Talavera
CF Talavera
12/13/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 8Campo Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Villarrubia35%
×Draw27%
CF Talavera37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarrubia
1.20
CF Talavera
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Villarrubia
1.15
CF Talavera
1.33

allows per match

Villarrubia
1.15
CF Talavera
1.25

finishing

Villarrubia+0.00on par
CF Talavera+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarrubia ↓

CF Talavera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Villarrubia or draw
63%
Villarrubia or CF Talavera
73%
Draw or CF Talavera
65%

Winning margin

Villarrubia wins by 2+
15%
CF Talavera wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Villarrubia 1+ goals
70%
Villarrubia 2+ goals
34%
Villarrubia 3+ goals
12%
CF Talavera 1+ goals
71%
CF Talavera 2+ goals
35%
CF Talavera 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Villarrubia (draw refunded)
49%
CF Talavera (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarrubia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

CF Talavera away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarrubia attack 1.15 + CF Talavera defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

CF Talavera attack 1.33 + Villarrubia defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Villarrubia scores more
35%
level
27%
CF Talavera scores more
37%

CF Talavera at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "CF Talavera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Villarrubia 1–3 CF Talavera

CF Talavera beat Villarrubia 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Nuevo Municipal in Villarrubia de los Ojos.