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CF Talavera vs Villarrubia — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

CF Talavera
CF Talavera
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Villarrubia
Villarrubia
3/14/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 17Estadio El Prado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

CF Talavera48%
×Draw27%
Villarrubia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CF Talavera
1.40
Villarrubia
0.93

CF Talavera creates 51% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

CF Talavera
1.42
Villarrubia
0.69

allows per match

CF Talavera
1.17
Villarrubia
1.38

finishing

CF Talavera+0.00on par
Villarrubia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CF Talavera ↓

Villarrubia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

CF Talavera or draw
75%
CF Talavera or Villarrubia
73%
Draw or Villarrubia
52%

Winning margin

CF Talavera wins by 2+
23%
Villarrubia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

CF Talavera 1+ goals
75%
CF Talavera 2+ goals
41%
CF Talavera 3+ goals
17%
Villarrubia 1+ goals
61%
Villarrubia 2+ goals
24%
Villarrubia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

CF Talavera (draw refunded)
66%
Villarrubia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CF Talavera at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

Villarrubia away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CF Talavera attack 1.42 + Villarrubia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Villarrubia attack 0.69 + CF Talavera defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CF Talavera scores more
48%
level
27%
Villarrubia scores more
25%

CF Talavera at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CF Talavera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: CF Talavera 3–0 Villarrubia

CF Talavera beat Villarrubia 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Prado in Talavera de la Reina.