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Villarrobledo vs Extremadura — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Extremadura
Extremadura
11/8/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Estadio Nuestra Señora de la Caridad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Villarrobledo29%
×Draw28%
Extremadura42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarrobledo
1.01
Extremadura
1.27

Extremadura creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Villarrobledo
0.85
Extremadura
1.08

allows per match

Villarrobledo
1.46
Extremadura
1.17

finishing

Villarrobledo+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarrobledo ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villarrobledo or draw
58%
Villarrobledo or Extremadura
72%
Draw or Extremadura
71%

Winning margin

Villarrobledo wins by 2+
11%
Extremadura wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Villarrobledo 1+ goals
64%
Villarrobledo 2+ goals
27%
Villarrobledo 3+ goals
8%
Extremadura 1+ goals
72%
Extremadura 2+ goals
36%
Extremadura 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Villarrobledo (draw refunded)
41%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarrobledo at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarrobledo attack 0.85 + Extremadura defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Extremadura attack 1.08 + Villarrobledo defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Villarrobledo scores more
29%
level
28%
Extremadura scores more
42%

Extremadura at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Extremadura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Villarrobledo 0–1 Extremadura

Extremadura beat Villarrobledo 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Nuestra Señora de la Caridad in Villarrobledo.