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Extremadura vs Villarrobledo — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Extremadura
Extremadura
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo
2/6/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 13Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Extremadura60%
×Draw25%
Villarrobledo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Extremadura
1.58
Villarrobledo
0.64

Extremadura creates 147% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Extremadura
1.25
Villarrobledo
0.69

allows per match

Extremadura
0.58
Villarrobledo
1.92

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par
Villarrobledo+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Villarrobledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw
85%
Extremadura or Villarrobledo
75%
Draw or Villarrobledo
40%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+
33%
Villarrobledo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals
79%
Extremadura 2+ goals
47%
Extremadura 3+ goals
21%
Villarrobledo 1+ goals
47%
Villarrobledo 2+ goals
14%
Villarrobledo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)
80%
Villarrobledo (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Villarrobledo away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 1.25 + Villarrobledo defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.58

Villarrobledo attack 0.69 + Extremadura defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Extremadura scores more
60%
level
25%
Villarrobledo scores more
15%

Extremadura at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Extremadura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Extremadura 3–1 Villarrobledo

Extremadura beat Villarrobledo 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco de la Hera in Almendralejo.