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Villarrobledo vs Atlético Tomelloso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Tomelloso
Atlético Tomelloso
9/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 2Estadio Nuestra Señora de la Caridad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Villarrobledo57%
×Draw26%
Atlético Tomelloso17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarrobledo
1.54
Atlético Tomelloso
0.70

Villarrobledo creates 120% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 32 away

creates per match

Villarrobledo
1.15
Atlético Tomelloso
0.56

allows per match

Villarrobledo
0.84
Atlético Tomelloso
1.94

finishing

Villarrobledo+0.00on par
Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarrobledo ↓

Atlético Tomelloso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Villarrobledo or draw
83%
Villarrobledo or Atlético Tomelloso
74%
Draw or Atlético Tomelloso
43%

Winning margin

Villarrobledo wins by 2+
30%
Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Villarrobledo 1+ goals
79%
Villarrobledo 2+ goals
45%
Villarrobledo 3+ goals
20%
Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals
50%
Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals
16%
Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Villarrobledo (draw refunded)
77%
Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarrobledo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.84 · 82 matches

Atlético Tomelloso away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarrobledo attack 1.15 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.54

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.56 + Villarrobledo defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Villarrobledo scores more
57%
level
26%
Atlético Tomelloso scores more
17%

Villarrobledo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Villarrobledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Villarrobledo 2–0 Atlético Tomelloso

Villarrobledo beat Atlético Tomelloso 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuestra Señora de la Caridad in Villarrobledo.