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Atlético Tomelloso vs Villarrobledo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Atlético Tomelloso
Atlético Tomelloso
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Villarrobledo
Villarrobledo
1/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 17Estadio Municipal Paco Gálvez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Atlético Tomelloso35%
×Draw28%
Villarrobledo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tomelloso
1.15
Villarrobledo
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 83 away

creates per match

Atlético Tomelloso
0.94
Villarrobledo
0.88

allows per match

Atlético Tomelloso
1.47
Villarrobledo
1.36

finishing

Atlético Tomelloso+0.00on par
Villarrobledo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tomelloso ↓

Villarrobledo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atlético Tomelloso or draw
63%
Atlético Tomelloso or Villarrobledo
72%
Draw or Villarrobledo
65%

Winning margin

Atlético Tomelloso wins by 2+
14%
Villarrobledo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atlético Tomelloso 1+ goals
68%
Atlético Tomelloso 2+ goals
32%
Atlético Tomelloso 3+ goals
11%
Villarrobledo 1+ goals
69%
Villarrobledo 2+ goals
33%
Villarrobledo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tomelloso (draw refunded)
49%
Villarrobledo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tomelloso at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 32 matches

Villarrobledo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.36 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tomelloso attack 0.94 + Villarrobledo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Villarrobledo attack 0.88 + Atlético Tomelloso defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Atlético Tomelloso scores more
35%
level
28%
Villarrobledo scores more
37%

Villarrobledo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Villarrobledo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Atlético Tomelloso 2–2 Villarrobledo

Atlético Tomelloso and Villarrobledo drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on January 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Paco Gálvez in Tomelloso.