Villarreal W 1–1 Real Sociedad W: Result & Stats

Villarreal W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Sociedad W

Lucía Gómez 70'

Emma Ramírez 34'

2/17/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 18Ciudad Deportiva del Villarreal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Villarreal W22%

×Draw22%

Real Sociedad W56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villarreal WExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

2.00

Villarreal W

1.18

Real Sociedad W

2.00

Real Sociedad W creates 69% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 119 away

0.89

creates per match

1.65

2.36

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Villarreal W

0.89

Real Sociedad W

1.65

allows per match

Villarreal W

2.36

Real Sociedad W

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villarreal W+0.00on par

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal W ↓

Real Sociedad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Villarreal W or draw

44%

Villarreal W or Real Sociedad W

78%

Draw or Real Sociedad W

78%

Winning margin

Villarreal W wins by 2+

9%

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Villarreal W 1+ goals

69%

Villarreal W 2+ goals

33%

Villarreal W 3+ goals

12%

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

86%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

59%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Villarreal W (draw refunded)

28%

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal W at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

Real Sociedad W away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.46 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal W attack 0.89 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.18

Real Sociedad W attack 1.65 + Villarreal W defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Villarreal W scores more

22%

level

22%

Real Sociedad W scores more

56%

Real Sociedad W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Emma Ramírez

Real Sociedad W · D

7.5

Match Events

34'

Emma Ramírez↳ Alejandra Bernabé

51'

Lucía Gómez García

63'

Lorena Navarro← Mirari Uria

64'

Thais Reiss← María Llompart

70'

Lucía Gómez↳ Nerea Pérez

77'

Cecilia Marcos← Emma Ramírez

77'

Amaiur Sarriegi← Nerea Eizagirre

81'

F. Lara← Lucía Gómez

82'

Lucía Romero← Fatou Kanteh

87'

J. Owusu← Ane Etxezarreta

89'

Rocío García← K. McKenna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VillarrealReal

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots12

2Corners5

6Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots12

4On Target2

3Off Target9

2Blocked1

6Inside Box4

3Outside Box8

Passing

40%Possession60%

347Total Passes518

231Accurate Passes418

67%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls6

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1