Real Sociedad W 1–0 Villarreal W: Result & Stats

Real Sociedad W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villarreal W

Alejandra Bernabé 85'

11/4/2023

Primera División Femenina · Round 7Instalaciones de Zubieta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Real Sociedad W53%

×Draw24%

Villarreal W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Sociedad WExpected goals in this matchVillarreal W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.09

Real Sociedad W

1.75

Villarreal W

1.09

Real Sociedad W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 45 away

1.87

creates per match

0.93

1.26

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Real Sociedad W

1.87

Villarreal W

0.93

allows per match

Real Sociedad W

1.26

Villarreal W

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Sociedad W+0.00on par

Villarreal W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Sociedad W ↓

Villarreal W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Real Sociedad W or draw

76%

Real Sociedad W or Villarreal W

76%

Draw or Villarreal W

47%

Winning margin

Real Sociedad W wins by 2+

29%

Villarreal W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Real Sociedad W 1+ goals

83%

Real Sociedad W 2+ goals

52%

Real Sociedad W 3+ goals

25%

Villarreal W 1+ goals

66%

Villarreal W 2+ goals

30%

Villarreal W 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Real Sociedad W (draw refunded)

69%

Villarreal W (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Sociedad W at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.26 · 119 matches

Villarreal W away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Sociedad W attack 1.87 + Villarreal W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.75

Villarreal W attack 0.93 + Real Sociedad W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Sociedad W scores more

53%

level

24%

Villarreal W scores more

24%

Real Sociedad W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Sociedad W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Alejandra Bernabé

Real Sociedad W · D

8.2

Match Events

66'

Nerea Eizagirre

67'

Ana Tejada← Ane Etxezarreta

68'

Mirari Uria← Lorena Navarro

72'

Lucía Gómez← Nerea Pérez

72'

Tere Morató← F. Lara

76'

Claudia Iglesias Bicho

77'

Lucía Romero← Fatou Kanteh

85'

Alejandra Bernabé

86'

J. Owusu← S. Franssi

88'

María Romero← Bicho

88'

Vera Rico← Queralt Gómez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealVillarreal

Overview

64%Possession36%

11Total Shots10

3Corners3

8Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots10

5On Target4

5Off Target6

1Blocked0

6Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

64%Possession36%

477Total Passes263

369Accurate Passes176

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4