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Villarreal vs Anderlecht — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Villarreal
Villarreal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Anderlecht
Anderlechtadvanced
3/16/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16Estadio de la Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Villarreal49%
×Draw23%
Anderlecht28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal
1.86
Anderlecht
1.35

Villarreal creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Villarreal
3.00
Anderlecht
1.09

allows per match

Villarreal
1.60
Anderlecht
0.73

finishing

Villarreal+0.00on par
Anderlecht+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Villarreal or draw
72%
Villarreal or Anderlecht
77%
Draw or Anderlecht
51%

Winning margin

Villarreal wins by 2+
27%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Villarreal 1+ goals
84%
Villarreal 2+ goals
55%
Villarreal 3+ goals
28%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
74%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
39%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Villarreal (draw refunded)
64%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal attack 3.00 + Anderlecht defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Anderlecht attack 1.09 + Villarreal defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Villarreal scores more
49%
level
23%
Anderlecht scores more
28%

Villarreal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Villarreal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Villarreal 0–1 Anderlecht

Anderlecht beat Villarreal 1-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on March 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de la Cerámica in Villarreal.