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Anderlecht vs Villarreal — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Anderlecht
Anderlecht
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Villarreal
Villarreal
3/9/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Round of 16Lotto Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Anderlecht45%
×Draw27%
Villarreal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anderlecht
1.40
Villarreal
1.05

Anderlecht creates 33% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Anderlecht
1.80
Villarreal
1.20

allows per match

Anderlecht
0.90
Villarreal
1.00

finishing

Anderlecht+0.00on par
Villarreal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anderlecht ↓

Villarreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Anderlecht or draw
72%
Anderlecht or Villarreal
73%
Draw or Villarreal
55%

Winning margin

Anderlecht wins by 2+
21%
Villarreal wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Anderlecht 1+ goals
75%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
41%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
17%
Villarreal 1+ goals
65%
Villarreal 2+ goals
28%
Villarreal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Anderlecht (draw refunded)
61%
Villarreal (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anderlecht at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Villarreal away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anderlecht attack 1.80 + Villarreal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Villarreal attack 1.20 + Anderlecht defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Anderlecht scores more
45%
level
27%
Villarreal scores more
28%

Anderlecht at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anderlecht vs Villarreal

Anderlecht and Villarreal drew 1-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on March 9, 2023.

The match was played at Lotto Park in Brussel.