Villarreal III 2–0 Intercity: Result & Stats

Villarreal III

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Intercity

3/8/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 28Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Villarreal III37%

×Draw27%

Intercity36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Villarreal IIIExpected goals in this matchIntercity

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.20

Villarreal III

1.23

Intercity

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 27 away

1.71

creates per match

1.44

0.96

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Villarreal III

1.71

Intercity

1.44

allows per match

Villarreal III

0.96

Intercity

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Villarreal III+0.00on par

Intercity+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal III ↓

Intercity →

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Villarreal III or draw

64%

Villarreal III or Intercity

73%

Draw or Intercity

63%

Winning margin

Villarreal III wins by 2+

16%

Intercity wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Villarreal III 1+ goals

71%

Villarreal III 2+ goals

35%

Villarreal III 3+ goals

13%

Intercity 1+ goals

70%

Intercity 2+ goals

34%

Intercity 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Villarreal III (draw refunded)

51%

Intercity (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Villarreal III at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

Intercity away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal III attack 1.71 + Intercity defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.23

Intercity attack 1.44 + Villarreal III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Villarreal III scores more

37%

level

27%

Intercity scores more

36%

Villarreal III at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Villarreal III vs Intercity

Villarreal III beat Intercity 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica in Villarreal.

Villarreal III vs Intercity — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Villarreal III vs Intercity