Intercity 2–1 Villarreal III: Result & Stats

Intercity

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Villarreal III

Cristian Herrera 71'

David Torres 36'

Ahn June-Hyuk 62' (pen)

10/20/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 9Poliesportiu Sant Joan d'Alacant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Intercity44%

×Draw26%

Villarreal III30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IntercityExpected goals in this matchVillarreal III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.17

Intercity

1.48

Villarreal III

1.17

Intercity creates 26% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 112 away

1.72

creates per match

1.38

0.96

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Intercity

1.72

Villarreal III

1.38

allows per match

Intercity

0.96

Villarreal III

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Intercity+0.00on par

Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intercity ↓

Villarreal III →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Intercity or draw

70%

Intercity or Villarreal III

74%

Draw or Villarreal III

56%

Winning margin

Intercity wins by 2+

22%

Villarreal III wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Intercity 1+ goals

77%

Intercity 2+ goals

43%

Intercity 3+ goals

19%

Villarreal III 1+ goals

69%

Villarreal III 2+ goals

33%

Villarreal III 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Intercity (draw refunded)

60%

Villarreal III (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Intercity at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Intercity attack 1.72 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.48

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Intercity defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Intercity scores more

44%

level

26%

Villarreal III scores more

30%

Intercity at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

David Torres

58'

Juan Carlos Arana← Lama

58'

Víctor Narro← Josema Vivancos

62'

J. Gaspar← D. Calvo

62'

Ahn June-HyukPenalty

71'

Cristian Herrera

80'

Joan Salva← Fer Niño

84'

Marco Valero← Carlos Carrasco

89'

Ruano← Óscar Rico

Intercity

Villarreal

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: José Lledó

62'▲J. Gaspar←▼D. Calvo

84'▲Marco Valero←▼Carlos Carrasco

89'▲Ruano←▼Óscar Rico

Intercity substitutes

GasparValeroRuano

Manager: Pere Martí

58'▲Juan Carlos Arana←▼Lama

58'▲Víctor Narro←▼Josema Vivancos

80'▲Joan Salva←▼Fer Niño

Villarreal III substitutes

AranaNarroSalva

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Intercity 2–1 Villarreal III

Intercity beat Villarreal III 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 20, 2019.

Goals: David Torres (36'), Ahn June-Hyuk (62' pen), Cristian Herrera (71').

The match was played at Poliesportiu Sant Joan d'Alacant in San Juan de Alicante.

Intercity vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Intercity 2–1 Villarreal III