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Villarreal III vs Eldense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Villarreal III
Villarreal III
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Eldense
Eldense
2/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 24Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Villarreal III45%
×Draw27%
Eldense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Villarreal III
1.42
Eldense
1.07

Villarreal III creates 33% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 26 away

creates per match

Villarreal III
1.71
Eldense
1.19

allows per match

Villarreal III
0.96
Eldense
1.12

finishing

Villarreal III+0.00on par
Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Villarreal III ↓

Eldense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Villarreal III or draw
72%
Villarreal III or Eldense
73%
Draw or Eldense
55%

Winning margin

Villarreal III wins by 2+
22%
Eldense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Villarreal III 1+ goals
76%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
41%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
17%
Eldense 1+ goals
66%
Eldense 2+ goals
29%
Eldense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Villarreal III (draw refunded)
61%
Eldense (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Villarreal III at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

Eldense away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Villarreal III attack 1.71 + Eldense defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.42

Eldense attack 1.19 + Villarreal III defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Villarreal III scores more
45%
level
27%
Eldense scores more
28%

Villarreal III at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Villarreal III 0 – 1 Eldense

Eldense beat Villarreal III 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Pamesa Cerámica in Villarreal.