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Eldense vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Eldense
Eldense
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
9/22/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 5Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Eldense46%
×Draw28%
Villarreal III26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eldense
1.34
Villarreal III
0.94

Eldense creates 43% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 112 away

creates per match

Eldense
1.46
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Eldense
0.50
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Eldense or draw
74%
Eldense or Villarreal III
72%
Draw or Villarreal III
54%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+
22%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals
74%
Eldense 2+ goals
39%
Eldense 3+ goals
15%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
61%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
24%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)
64%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.50 · 26 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.46 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.34

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Eldense defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eldense scores more
46%
level
28%
Villarreal III scores more
26%

Eldense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Eldense 0–2 Villarreal III

Villarreal III beat Eldense 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat in Elda.